Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial picks: Betting strategy for Kentucky Derby prep races

AI-assisted summary
• Journalism is the favorite to win the Santa Anita Derby after impressive wins in the Los Alamitos Futurity and San Felipe Stakes.
• Hill Road is a good bet in the Wood Memorial Stakes after a promising fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
• Burnham Square is the most likely winner of the Blue Grass Stakes, offering potential value as he is not expected to be favored.

If you had told me two months ago that Bob Baffert would have two of the five entries in the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday at Santa Anita Park and neither would be favored, then I’d have asked who the monster is.

We may not have had an answer then, but we do now; “the monster” is Journalism, winner of the Los Alamitos Futurity and San Felipe Stakes in his last two starts, defeating several prominent Baffert trainees in the process, including the previously undefeated Barnes, who returns here for a rematch.

Also expected is last year’s champion Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Citizen Bull, off since starting his 3-year-old campaign with a front-end win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in February at Santa Anita.

The good news about thinking Journalism is a monster and Baffert sending a pair to tackle him is that Baffert often takes money, and there is no reason he shouldn’t given the talent and success of Barnes and Citizen Bull. It’s just that Journalism is better. In fact, I’d say his San Felipe Stakes was the best prep to date.

A repeat of that performance is good enough to win this for sure because we already know it was good enough to beat Barnes, and Citizen Bull has yet to run as fast as Barnes has based on Ragozin Data (aka The Sheets), so the champ will have to move forward as well. And if Journalism manages to improve off the San Felipe? Well, then he is nearly invincible.

So that means the only way he gets beat with any certainty is regression, and I have too much respect for trainer Michael McCarthy to think that this one will not maintain his form. Journalism is a single for me in multi-race wagers, and I would bet him to win at even money or better (morning line is 6-5).

The Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct is as competitive a race as you will find with 12 3-year-olds hoping to earn Derby points led by Withers Stakes winner Captain Cook and Baffert shipper Rodriguez, who finally exits Citizen Bull’s and Barnes’ shadows. With all the speed signed on in here, though, I am hoping to get a decent price on Hill Road.

This fourth-place finisher in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile had few works going into his 3-year-old debut when third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, but that was won gate-to-wire by Owen Almighty, and there will be a lot more pace in the Wood along with trainer Chad Brown getting a month more of training into this intriguing prospect.

I am looking to bet Hill Road to win and keyed in exotics with Captain Cook.

As for the weather-delayed Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, which moved from Saturday to Tuesday, this is as an evenly matched group as it comes with four of the seven entrants having legitimate chances here. The opportunity will come from tossing East Avenue, who is co-second choice on the morning line and just has too much improvement needed to match up with most of these especially after two complete clunkers at short prices.

I am most excited to play Burnham Square, whom I see as the most likely winner but will definitely not be favored. The horse he beat in the Holy Bull Stakes (Tappan Street) came back to win the Florida Derby, and while the Fountain of Youth Stakes was a disappointing loss as the favorite, he was wide in there and had to make a couple moves while still staying on to be fourth.

There is some serious pace in here, and Burnham Square has shown an ability to sit and kick. I like the fit with new jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. as well. This is my win bet and exotics key mostly with Chancer McPatrick, who I think will be somewhat overlooked with questions surrounding his development, but he was never catching Owen Almighty in the Tampa Bay Derby. Owen Almighty shows up here as well but should have company from River Thames and East Avenue.

How to watch 2025 Kentucky Derby

Last May, NBC Sports announced a partnership with Churchill Downs to present the Kentucky Derby on NBC and Peacock through 2032.

The extension includes multiplatform rights to the Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Oaks and Derby and Oaks Day programming, which will be presented on NBC, Peacock, USA Network and additional NBCU platforms.

You can stream the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Fubo and Peacock.

What time is the Kentucky Derby?

While not yet official, the post time for the 151st Kentucky Derby will be about 6:57 p.m. on Saturday, May 3.