Warming and increasing wind will increase our wildfire danger

GRAND JUNCTION, Colo. (KJCT) - Unseasonably warm weather and a lack of any moisture will persist through at least the next seven days.

Increasing Wildfire Danger

Wildfire danger will begin increasing on Sunday, and then it will increase further early next week. The warmth paired with low humidity and increasingly gusty wind - 20-30 mph on Sunday and 30-40 mph on Monday and Tuesday - will add to the risk. The drought adds to the risk. Weather will be favorable for wildfires to start and spread out of control quickly. Please avoid all outdoor burning during this time. Be especially mindful of dragging chains when towing as they can cause sparks when they strike the pavement. Discarding cigarettes out of your vehicle windows is never safe, but it’s especially dangerous during periods of heightened wildfire risk.

Drought Monitor Update

The weekly Drought Monitor update was not significantly different from last week. Extreme Drought - the second highest level of drought - is present over most of Mesa County, Delta County, and eastern Montrose County. This includes areas around Grand Junction, Palisade, Delta, and Montrose. We got some good moisture Sunday through Tuesday, but we need so much more moisture. At best, the moisture we got helped to keep things from getting worse.

La Niña Ends

The La Niña that was present over the winter is no more. La Niña is abnormal cooling of the equatorial waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean. It is the opposite of El Niño, which is a warming of the equatorial waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean. With La Niño gone, we’re in a neutral period of El Niño-La Niña. We’re likely to stay neutral through the August-October period. The November-January period is less certain, though neutral conditions are favored with a 43% probability. The return of La Niña shows a 38% probability. The odds of El Niño happening are much smaller - less than 20%.

Long-Range Outlook

If El Niño and La Niña were the only things to watch, we could expect a summer that is close to normal. There are other similar global circulation patterns, however, that have different plans. Overall warmer-than-normal weather is favored with 50-60% odds through August. The probability is smaller, but we’re still favored for above-normal temperatures through the Fall. We may have better luck with precipitation. We’re favored for below-normal precipitation with 33-40% odds through June. We lean near or slightly above normal from July through September with a 33% probability. That could signal a healthy monsoon season for us.

Our Next 24 Hours

This evening will be mostly clear. We’ll cool from low-to-mid 70s at 6 PM to upper 60s and lower 70s at 8 PM, then to low-to-mid 60s at 10 PM. The rest of tonight will be mainly clear. Low temperatures will be near 51 degrees around Grand Junction, 44 degrees around Montrose, 46 degrees around Delta, 35 degrees around Cortez, and 52 degrees around Moab. Friday will be mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. We’ll warm from upper 40s and low-to-mid 50s at 7 AM to upper 60s and lower 70s at noon, then to mid-to-upper 70s and lower 80s at 4 PM. High temperatures will be near 83 degrees around Grand Junction, 77 degrees around Montrose, 84 degrees around Delta, 77 degrees around Cortez, and 83 degrees around Moab.

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